The Anteroom

Curtis Barry’s Forecast for Tomorrow’s Kentucky Derby

Horse_race,_Churchill_Downs_2008-04-18

General a Rod (8), Wildcat Red (10) and California Chrome (5) have the best overall times at 1 1/8 and 1 1/16 miles, and the best closing times, but factoring in speed for the California tracks, the 8 & 10 have the better overall and closing times.

Those two horses have raced against each other three times since the first of the year, with Wildcat Red winning 2 of the three, but each time they were close together at the finish. I’m giving the edge to General a Rod due to his inside post, the first time he’s had it in those three races.

Danza’s (4) times are competitive, particularly his closing times, and he seems to be at a peak in his training. But the horse is lightly raced and will carry substantially more weight than previous races.

Another entry with competitive times is Wicked Strong’s (20), but the far outside post position and the fact that he doesn’t break fast I think will doom his chances.

California Chrome (5) has the fastest times in the race, but add back in a second or so due to the consistency of the California tracks where he races, and the fact he doesn’t seem to get out of the gate as well as some others, could lead him to be middle-of-the-pack and not in a position to make a move.

With Hoppertunity out, Chrome’s odds will be too small to make any wager worthwhile.

Curt’s Plays:

WPS 8-10-4-20